哈罗CQ火腿社区 - DX通信 - 这个太阳周期，太阳活动真可能扁平化了。 - 第2页

发帖: 1361

只看该作者 20楼发表于: 2011-06-21

楼上图来源
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/20/a-dalton-minimum-repeat-is-shaping-up/
底下的讨论有人提到了：

the sun has probably been spotless on several occasions recently but those doing the counting have been using a large magnifying glass to count every pixel in a desperate attempt to pump-up the numbers. some would even like to change the system and use the stereo behind / stereo ahead satellites to count sunspots out of sight of earth; to bump-up the numbers even more.
由此看来现代的观测技术提高了也降低了黑子的门槛，不知道如果我们采用18世纪的观测技术是否还能观测到如此多的黑子。黑子有没有什么具体的认定标准？

离线zly

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发帖: 10065

只看该作者 21楼发表于: 2011-06-21

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dalton minimum

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在2011年3月、4月，达到目前本周期最大值时，太阳黑子平均数也只有56.2和54.4，与图表中预测的结果一致。
数据来源如下：
==========================================
http://www.solen.info/solar/

monthly solar cycle data

month average measured solar flux international sunspot number (sidc) smoothed sunspot number average ap
(3)
2008.07 65.7 (sf minimum) 0.5 2.8 (-0.4)
2008.12 69.2 0.8 1.7 (-)
sunspot minimum 3.25
2010.02 84.7 18.8 10.6 (+1.3) 4.15 / 4.61
2010.03 83.4 15.4 12.3 (+1.7) 4.58 / 4.65
2010.04 75.9 8.0 14.0 (+1.7) 10.22 / 10.24
2010.05 73.8 8.7 15.5 (+1.5) 9.18 / 8.15
2010.06 72.5 13.6 16.4 (+0.9) 8.17 / 6.85
2010.07 79.8 16.1 16.7 (+0.3) 6.31 / 5.15
2010.08 79.2 19.6 17.4 (+0.7) 8.49 / 7.77
2010.09 81.1 25.2 19.6 (+2.2) 5.33 / 5.45
2010.10 81.6 23.5 23.2 (+3.6) 6.07 / 6.27
2010.11 82.5 21.5 26.5 (+3.3) 4.80 / 5.50
2010.12 84.2 14.4 (29.4 predicted, +2.9) 3.41 / 4.35
2011.01 83.6 19.1 (32.6 predicted, +3.2) 4.32 / 5.51
2011.02 94.6 29.4 (35.2 predicted, +2.6) 5.41 / 6.44
2011.03 115.0 56.2 (37.5 predicted, +2.3) 7.79
2011.04 112.6 54.4 (40.4 predicted, +2.9) 9.71
2011.05 95.8 41.6 (43.7 predicted, +3.3) 9.18